GeorgiaEconomics

Georgia economic outlook

A coincident business-cycle index — where Georgia's economy is right now — and a 5-year model forecast of the headline indicators, statewide and by metro. Built from BLS, BEA, Census, and FHFA actuals.
Cycle index through: —
Business-cycle index
—
100 = Jan 2019 · 1σ = 10 pts
vs. cycle peak
—
—
Forecast GDP growth
—
2030, model (YoY)
Forecast job growth
—
2030, model (YoY)
Metros at/above peak
—
of 14, cycle index
Metros tracked
14
+ statewide

Where Georgia Is in the Cycle

A Stock-Watson coincident index from statewide payroll employment and unemployment, rebased to 100 in January 2019 and smoothed. Higher = more economic activity; the COVID trough and recovery are visible.

Five-Year Outlook

Model projection, not an official forecast.

Projected path of each indicator, 2026–2030, if recent trends persist. Pick a metric.

Each Metro vs. Its Own Peak

How far each metro's cycle index sits below (coral) or at/above (teal) its own peak — who's still climbing and who's rolling over.

Source: roll-up of the 14 metro reports (coincident cycle index).

Metro Growth Outlook (2026–2030)

Model projections — see the caveat above. Annualized (CAGR) over the forecast horizon.
Source: roll-up of the 14 metro reports (5-year damped-Holt forecast).

About this data

The business-cycle index is a Stock-Watson-style coincident indicator: the first principal component of statewide payroll employment (BLS CES) and unemployment (BLS LAUS), z-scored, rebased to 100 in January 2019, and lightly smoothed (1 standard deviation ≈ 10 index points). It describes where the economy is, not where it's going. The 5-year forecast uses damped-trend Holt smoothing (an ARIMA-family method) fit to each historical series; levels are projected in log space and the trend is damped to avoid runaway extrapolation. These are mechanical model projections from past data — not official forecasts, predictions, or investment advice, and they do not incorporate policy changes, shocks, or judgment. Statewide figures are computed from Georgia actuals; metro figures roll up from the 14 metro reports using the identical methodology. This page is state- and metro-level (not county). Sections show a stale badge when their inputs are more than a few months old.