Gainesville, GA
AnalysisJune 2026 · Generated by Economic Impact Group, LLC from the data shown on this page
Every claim in this section is derived from a specific indicator displayed elsewhere on this page; section names in parentheses point to the source. This narrative is generated deterministically from the live data refresh shown in the as-of stamp — figures update on each refresh.
Labor Market
Gainesville's unemployment rate is 2.8% (Mar 2026) — the lowest of Georgia's 14 metros — yet total nonfarm employment is growing modestly (+0.6% YoY, Current Employment Trends). Breadth is broad: the diffusion index reads 78 (Diffusion Index), so most major industries are adding jobs. The movement is sectoral — retail trade (+6.1%) and leisure & hospitality (+4.5%) are still adding jobs, while manufacturing (−2.4%) and wholesale trade (−1.9%) are contracting (Industry Employment).
Sector Mix
The metro's base is tilted toward manufacturing: manufacturing is 22.5% of employment versus 8.6% nationally (Comparative Employment) — location quotients of 2.6, the metro's defining industries (Economic Drivers). The largest sectors by headcount are manufacturing (22.5%) and education & health (17.5%). The thinner spots are white-collar: professional & business services is 10.0% of jobs (vs. 15.2% US) and financial activities is 3.1% of jobs (vs. 6.0% US). On pay, professional-services pay averages $78,105 a year against $101,525 nationally while manufacturing averages $59,332 (QCEW, where disclosed).
Trade Exposure
Goods exports totaled $1.0B in 2024 (Exports), about 5% of gross metro product — a modest trade intensity. Machinery ($0.3B), processed foods ($0.2B) and transportation equipment ($0.2B) lead the basket; USMCA is the largest single destination market.
Housing
House-price growth has cooled to +3.7% YoY (House Price Index). The EIG valuation model places Gainesville on its income-implied fair value (-1% deviation), so prices track local income fundamentals rather than running ahead of them. Builders authorized roughly 1,461 single-family and 535 multifamily permits in 2025 (headline table). Affordability sits above breakeven: the EIG affordability index reads 104 (Housing Affordability) — a reading over 100 means the median household can qualify for the median home.
Demographics & Migration
Population reached about 212,705 (2024) and grew 2.1% into the latest year (Geographic Profile) — roughly 2–3× the US pace, the fastest population growth of Georgia's 14 metros, with net migration of +1,925 the main driver. The metro's age profile shows median age 38.4, younger than the US (~39), with Gen Z and Millennials a combined ~39% of residents (Population by Age). Educational attainment is below the US average, with 27.3% of adults holding a bachelor's degree or higher.
Inequality & Structural Position
A Gini coefficient of 0.45 sits below the US average (~0.48), pointing to broadly middling income inequality (Inequality table). Within the metro, roughly a tenth of neighborhoods report a median household income under $50k; the poverty rate of about 12% runs near the US average; the industrial diversity score (0.71, Industrial Structure) is below the Georgia average.
Synthesis
Gainesville pairs real strengths — a 2.8% unemployment rate, positive in-migration, on-trend home valuations, an EIG credit score of AA- (stable outlook) — with employment growth slowing (+0.6% YoY).
| Indicator | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F | 2029F | 2030F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross metro product ($B 2017$) | 26.1 | 25.4 | 27.8 | 29.3 | 30.6 | 32.1 | 33.4 | — | — | — | — | — |
| % change | 3.0 | -2.7 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total employment (000s) | 183.2 | 175.4 | 184.9 | 196.7 | 206.4 | 211.0 | 216.2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| % change | 2.1 | -4.3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 3.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Personal income growth (%) | 5.2 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Median HH income ($K) | 59.4 | 61.0 | 64.7 | 67.5 | 71.2 | 74.8 | 78.1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Population (000s) | 391.4 | 395.0 | 399.6 | 404.0 | 407.5 | 410.0 | 416.4 | — | — | — | — | — |
| % change | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.6 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net migration (000s) | 4.8 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Single-family permits (#) | 3,610 | 3,840 | 5,210 | 4,180 | 3,720 | 4,210 | 4,590 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Multifamily permits (#) | 610 | 720 | 1,540 | 2,210 | 1,860 | 1,340 | 1,180 | — | — | — | — | — |
| FHFA HPI growth (%) | 5.4 | 7.2 | 17.8 | 14.6 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 3.6 | — | — | — | — | — |
Economic Health Check
Recent-quarters trajectory
| Indicator | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment (000s) | 196.1 | 197.0 | 198.2 | 199.0 | 200.1 | 201.3 |
| Avg weekly wage ($) | 1,180 | 1,192 | 1,205 | 1,221 | 1,238 | 1,254 |
| Establishments | 14,820 | 14,910 | 15,005 | 15,120 | 15,240 | 15,360 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Labor force (000s) | 205.3 | 206.1 | 207.0 | 208.2 | 209.4 | 210.6 |
Business Cycle Index
Employment
Industry Employment
Current Employment Trends
| Sector | Apr 25 | Oct 25 | Apr 26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Construction | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Manufacturing | 4.8 | 6.2 | 7.1 |
| Trade | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Trans & Warehousing | 3.6 | 5.1 | 6.4 |
| Information | -0.8 | -1.4 | -1.9 |
| Financial Activities | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Prof & Bus Svcs | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Edu & Health | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Leisure & Hospitality | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Government | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Diffusion Index
Relative Employment Performance
Relative Employment Forecast
House Price Index
Housing
Rental Affordability
House Price Trends
Housing Affordability
Industrial Structure
Major Employers
| A representative major-employer list for Gainesville is compiled automatically on each data refresh. If none appears here yet, discovery is pending for this metro. |
Industrial Diversity
Hachman index of 0.86 — closer to 1.0 means an industrial mix more like the U.S. overall. Gainesville is more diversified than the Georgia average.
Entrepreneurship
Productivity
Exports — by Product, 2024
| Transportation equipment | 4,820 |
| Chemicals | 1,310 |
| Paper & pulp | 1,050 |
| Machinery (except electrical) | 820 |
| Food & kindred products | 440 |
| Fabricated metals | 290 |
| Other | 1,180 |
| Total ($M) | 9,910 |
By Destination, 2024
| Asia | 3,840 |
| European Union | 2,610 |
| Canada & Mexico | 1,720 |
| South America | 820 |
| Africa | 340 |
| Rest of world | 580 |
Comparative Employment & Income
| Sector | % of Total Employment | Average Annual Earnings ($) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainesville | GA | US | Gainesville | GA | US | |
| Construction | 5.8 | 4.6 | 5.2 | $72,300 | $84,190 | $83,082 |
| Manufacturing | 11.4 | 8.6 | 8.1 | $93,500 | $77,848 | $86,565 |
| Durable | 7.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | $108,200 | $81,048 | $91,999 |
| Nondurable | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | $64,100 | $74,431 | $77,635 |
| Transportation/Utilities | 9.7 | 6.0 | 4.6 | $71,200 | $76,089 | $77,159 |
| Wholesale Trade | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | $84,500 | $103,269 | $103,885 |
| Retail Trade | 10.6 | 10.4 | 9.8 | $39,200 | $42,798 | $44,582 |
| Information | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | $78,900 | $142,345 | $175,839 |
| Financial Activities | 4.2 | 5.7 | 5.8 | $71,400 | $116,191 | $125,789 |
| Prof. & Bus. Services | 10.8 | 15.2 | 14.3 | $78,300 | $95,383 | $104,389 |
| Education & Health Services | 13.6 | 14.1 | 16.8 | $61,400 | $67,640 | $64,021 |
| Leisure & Hospitality | 13.2 | 10.4 | 10.6 | $38,200 | $35,118 | $38,543 |
| Other Services | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | $54,800 | $62,542 | $64,341 |
| Government | 11.4 | 14.4 | 14.8 | $68,400 | $72,103 | $77,906 |
Demographics & Migration
Block Groups by Income
Economic Inequality
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Gini coefficient | 0.46 |
| Poverty rate (%) | 13.4 |
| Neighborhoods under $50k median (%) | 22.4 |
National metro rank omitted — no automatable MSA-level ranking source.
Per Capita Income
Migration Flows — Into Gainesville
| Hinesville GA | 2,840 |
| Atlanta GA | 1,930 |
| Jacksonville FL | 1,420 |
| Charleston SC | 980 |
| New York NY | 790 |
| Augusta GA-SC | 610 |
| Tampa FL | 510 |
| Total in-migration | 18,500 |
From Gainesville
| Hinesville GA | 2,340 |
| Jacksonville FL | 1,180 |
| Atlanta GA | 1,160 |
| Charleston SC | 740 |
| Net migration | +5,700 |
Generational Breakdown
Educational Attainment
Population by Age
Geographic Profile
Net Migration
Population & Housing Characteristics
| Indicator | Units | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Total land area | sq mi | 1,628 |
| Population density | pop / sq mi | 312 |
| Median age | years | 36.2 |
| Total housing units | thousands | 176.2 |
| Owner occupied | % of total | 57.4 |
| Renter occupied | % of total | 34.1 |
| Vacant | % of total | 8.5 |
| 1-unit detached | % of total | 62.1 |
| Multifamily | % of total | 28.4 |
| Median year built | year | 1992 |