Interest Rates

The 10-year rate has shown recent volatility and with it, the 30-year mortgage rate is rising.

Surprisingly, with more than $5 trillion pumped into the economy in the last year, the 10 year break-even inflation rate (a measure of expected inflation derived from 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities and 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities) is not showing significant inflation expectations, although the trend is certainly up.

In addition, the yield curve isn’t showing future inflation expectations, but the spread between long-term and short-term rates is certainly trending up as well.