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In response to COVID-19, the government spent more than $6 trillion and gave that to households.

As a result, personal savings went up, and total outstanding consumer credit went down. However, now, the stimulus is gone and inflation has taken hold. As such, we see households churning through their savings and credit balances going up significantly.

Now, real disposable income is dropping and personal consumption is going down.

As personal consumption declines the ratio of personal consumption to GDP drops which indicates a recession is in place or on the horizon.